Iowa and New Hampshire: The GOP

Anti-establishment candidates Donald Trump and Ted Cruz have won the first contests in New Hampshire and Iowa respectively. (Photo by Frederic J. Brown, Andrew Harrer/Getty Images)

After months of relentless campaigning, the first two states have finally spoken and primary season is officially underway. The Republican field especially has been hard hit by Iowa and New Hampshire; what began as an unprecedented free-for-all between 17 candidates has been narrowed down to just six. In this article, the focus will be put on those seven candidates, how they’ve fared in the two early states, and their paths (or lack thereof) to the nomination.

The famed Iowa Caucus kicked off official voting on February 1st, where a record 180,000 Republicans turned out to caucus for their respective candidates. Having completed the “full Grassley” of visiting all 99 of Iowa’s counties and relying on Iowa’s powerful evangelical electorate, Ted Cruz smashed his way to victory with 28% of the vote, defeating Donald Trump (24%) and a surprisingly resurgent Marco Rubio (23%).

The victory did not come without controversy, however; Ted Cruz precinct captains were accused of misinforming caucus-goers that Ben Carson, who finished 4th with 9% of the vote, had dropped out of the race and that Ted Cruz was the only religious stalwart left.

Though Cruz certainly impressed with his victory, many pundits are still waiting before announcing the Texas senator as a frontrunner; Iowa has a history of supporting insurgent evangelicals, such as Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012, that do not have a strong enough appeal across the rest of the country to win the nomination.

Trump, though gracious in his concession speech, was certainly irate over his defeat. There was a fear among establishment Republicans that a Trump victory in Iowa would legitimize his aura of invincibility and carry him on a sweep across the primaries to win the nomination. It seems skipping the debate before the caucus cost the billionaire dearly, as he barely even finished in second place.

The real story of the night was Marco Rubio; the Florida senator had been polling around 16% in the state according to RealClearPolitics.org but managed to finish with a whopping 23%, almost eclipsing even Donald Trump. Much of the GOP establishment began lining up behind Rubio after the results; many see him as young enough to espouse generational change and moderate enough to unite the party and win the general election in the face of the right-wing rhetoric of Trump and Cruz.

As soon as the caucus was officially called, however, the focus shifted immediately to New Hampshire. The first-in-the-nation primary had been dominated in the polls by Trump, still reeling from his loss in Iowa, but was also the last hope of the moderates in the race looking to gain some momentum; the governors especially were hoping for strong finishes, with Ohio Gov.John Kasich, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush holding countless events in the state.

Just three days before the primary, Fox News hosted a Saturday night debate as a final chance for the candidates to acquit themselves before New Hampshire voters. It was a generally unremarkable night, aside from one catastrophic performance in the form of Marco Rubio. The senator repeated the same line on Barack Obama four times verbatim, drawing intense fire from Chris Christie for being over-rehearsed, robotic, and using memorized 25-second speeches instead of real solutions. The mistake showed in the final results, as Rubio slumped to a 5th place finish with just 10%.

Donald Trump emerged with a blowout victory, garnering 35% of the vote and leaving his closest competitor, John Kasich, almost 20 points behind. Despite ignoring the usual rules of retail politics and getting to know the people on the ground, Trump managed to translate his super-rallies into electoral success and now goes into the remaining states with great confidence and momentum.

Aside from Trump, it was Kasich that stole the show. The Ohio governor is the most moderate Republican in the field, touting his balancing of the budget in the 90’s and his expansion of Medicare in Ohio on moral grounds. He campaigned almost exclusively in New Hampshire, ignoring Iowa almost completely, and it paid off; Kasich’s surprise second-placed finish has put him squarely in the role of the electable moderate with executive experience.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich speaks at the First in the Nation Republican Leadership Conference in Nashua, New Hampshire April 18, 2015. (Photo by Bryan Snyder/REUTERS)

Though Cruz managed a decent 3rd place with 12%, it was Jeb Bush that was the final headline-maker with a resurgent 4th place finish that showed the original establishment favorite still displaying signs of life. More important than Bush’s 11% showing, however, was that he managed to defeat fellow Floridian Marco Rubio (10%), still reeling after his stumbling debate performance, and fellow moderate Gov. Chris Christie (7%), who dropped out of the race after the results were finalized.

After these two bruising contests, the Republican field has been winnowed down to just six; three outsiders and three establishment picks.

In the outsider, lane, only one actual politician remains in the form of Texan Sen. Ted Cruz, locked in combat with Donald Trump for the anti-Washington vote. Though retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson remains in the race for now, his poll numbers are flagging, and Cruz and Trump’s victories in Iowa and New Hampshire have put them in control of the outsider lane.

On the establishment side, however, all three candidates are fighting a bloody primary to win the support of the party’s more moderate, historic wing, and nobody yet seems a clear favorite. Marco Rubio’s Iowa fightback made him seem the early favorite, but Kasich’s powerful New Hampshire showing and Jeb Bush’s resilience have kept them both in the conversation as well. Bush especially has amped up the pressure on his opponents, with his Super PAC pouring millions of dollars into negative advertising on his fellow Floridian, Rubio, and now Kasich as well.

With Iowa and New Hampshire having spoken, however, a fear for many Americans undeniably remains true; billionaire businessman Donald Trump remains the heavy favorite for the Republican nomination. Though his delegate lead is still nominal, Trump continues to dominate the polls in most states across America, and in the polls he leads his closest competitor, Ted Cruz, by 17 points in the next state to vote; South Carolina.

However, the state is well-known as a viper’s nest, especially for the GOP; blitzes of negative ads will surely shower the South Carolina as Trump looks to hold his lead, Cruz touts his southern credibility, and Jeb Bush pulls out his brother and ex-candidate Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina to stump for him, both extremely popular figures in the state.

Though the first two contests have massively changed the complexion of the GOP race, a long, slug-fest of a primary still lays ahead, and though Trump remains the frontrunner, in this highly charged political climate, anything is possible in the months ahead.

Is the GOP Finally Falling Apart?

If you ask any Republican today who their favorite politician is, you’ll likely get the same answer from all of them. Over the summer, as the GOP presidential field began to take shape, many of the candidates were asked for their favorite living president, and, despite the “living” qualification, answered the same way. Unsurprisingly, Ronald Reagan lives on today as the hero of the right that made being conservative cool. With ugly infighting and right-wing disruption now characterizing the Republican Party in Washington, it seems now that the GOP may have reached its peak with Reagan, never to again ascend to those lofty heights.

During the wave elections in 2010 and 2012, the Tea Party insurgency helped lead the Republicans to a huge majority in the House and potentially ushered the rise of a new generation of conservative dominance in response to the Obama presidency. One of the biggest fundraisers that helped elect that wave was the hard-right Ohioan Rep. John Boehner, who was promptly elected Speaker of the House in January of 2011. Since then, the smooth sailing has turned utterly sour, and just a few days ago, Boehner announced he would be retiring from his post.

In fact, John Boehner is the third straight Republican Speaker to resign amid strong disapproval from his own caucus, following Newt Gingrich and Dennis Hastert. His Speakership has been characterized by constant fighting within his own party and a failure to seriously govern or pass meaningful legislation. Rebellions from the House Freedom Caucus, an organization of conservative hard-liners that have vocally fought House leadership on multiple issues

Speaker John Boehner is the third straight Republican speaker to resign his post under pressure from his own caucus, speaking volumes about the dysfunction of the GOP.

Most recently, the Freedom Caucus has pushed angrily to defund Planned Parenthood and have been willing to hold funding for the federal government hostage to accomplish that goal. Knowing that the Senate wouldn’t be able to pass such a bill and that President Obama would veto any such legislation, Boehner has had to fight down his revolting members yet again and is finally fed up with the process. His sudden resignation came as a shock to many, but before he departs on October 30th, he plans to pass a clean funding bill that would keep Planned Parenthood open. The competition for the opening spots in Republican leadership have continued to wreak turmoil on the already bruised House Republicans, and the next Speaker will likely continue to struggle to control the roiling chamber.

Things don’t look bright in the Senate, either. The GOP finally captured a majority in the chamber in the 2014 midterm elections but has struggled to really accomplish anything. In fact, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has spent most of his time fighting down revolts from his Tea Party members, much like Boehner in the House. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has been a particular pain for McConnell. After famously shutting down the government in 2013 over the Affordable Care Act, Cruz continued his tirades this summer, calling McConnell a “liar” on the Senate floor and saying the Kentuckian is overly compliant and willing to compromise with Democrats.

The firebrand evangelical, who is currently running for president, seems set to try to shut down the government yet again over Planned Parenthood. Though McConnell and Senate leadership has managed to isolate Cruz and so far ensure that the government will continue running, the constant infighting has led to a dramatically reduced acceptance of the GOP among the American public.

After President Obama’s reelection in 2012, the Republican National Committee released the Growth and Opportunity Project, a 97-page autopsy report of the party’s loss in the election. Surprisingly bluntly, the report attacked the GOP’s ideological rigidity, its preference for the rich over workers, its alienation of minorities, its reactionary social ideas, and its institutionally repressive policies. The idea at the time was that, in order to save the Republican Party, the GOP would have to become more welcoming to centrists and voters of all demographics.

RNC Chairman Reince Priebus has tried desperately to make the Republican Party more accessible for minorities and Americans of all types but has seen his efforts undone by the likes of Donald Trump.

Instead, much to the chagrin in RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, the party has done the opposite. It has become the party whose ideological “purity” has shut down the government on multiple occasions and threatens to do so again, the party whose rank and file kick out any leadership that doesn’t go along with their brinkmanship, and the party whose supremely “constitutional” candidates like Ted Cruz rail against basic principles of the Constitution, such as life-serving Supreme Court justices.

Most embarrassing of all for Mr. Priebus has been the rise of Donald Trump. The billionaire real-estate mogul has risen to the top of the polls in the race for the Republican nomination, mainly for his fierce anti-immigration rhetoric aimed mainly at Mexicans that he claimed were “drug-addicts” and “rapists” in his announcement speech. This diatribe against minorities will hardly extend the membership of the party to Hispanics, the fastest growing demographic in the U.S., and it seems the number of Americans that see the GOP as a viable option are slowly slimming.

For now, the Republican Party maintains a strong majority in the House and a slim one in the Senate, but both of those could be on the downturn. With Republican infighting plaguing Boehner’s speakership and the Democrats facing a very favorable Senate reelection map in 2016, the GOP looks as though it could take some serious hits in 2016. It remains to be seen, however, if the Republicans can open up their party and ideologically adjust to modern America or if the GOP will come crashing down around itself in a tsunami of hard-line, unfettered conservatism and fighting.

Winners and Losers of the First GOP Debate

Donald Trump, center stage and raising his hand, stole the show from the start with his controversial remarks.

After months of buildup, anticipation, and political maneuvering, the first presidential GOP debate occurred on Thursday in Cleveland, hosted by Fox News. The traditionally conservative news station chose to have the top ten candidates in the national polls participate in the prime time debate at 9:00 ET, while the remaining seven candidates participated in an undercard debate at 5:00. Historically, the debates have been important factors in weeding out the second and third tier candidates and giving impassioned speakers a chance to make their pitch to the voters. This cycle’s first debate was one of the most fiery affairs in modern history.

Carly Fiorina dominated the undercard debate and was winning some plaudits, but as soon as the real debate began, all the headlines were taken immediately by Donald Trump as he refused to pledge to support the GOP nominee, no matter who it ends up being. Tongue-in-cheek, he responded to the question by saying, “I can totally make that pledge if I’m the nominee,” resulting in boos from the crowd. Trump blustered his way through defending his companies’ bankruptcy declarations and claimed that Hillary Clinton, the prohibitive Democratic nominee, had no choice but to come to his wedding due to his campaign donations. He deflected questions on illegal immigration, told Rand Paul that the Kentucky senator was “having a hard time tonight”, and even compared himself to Ronald Reagan in terms of evolving on the issues. However, The Donald reached the apex of controversy in a scuffle against moderator Megyn Kelly over his previous sexist comments.

“You’ve called women you don’t like fat pigs, dogs, slobs and disgusting animals,” Kelly began her question, only to be quickly cut off by Trump’s response: “Only Rosie O’Donnell.” The crowd erupted into laughter, and the billionaire businessman went on to criticize the need for political correctness that has taken over America.

Post debate, the feud between Trump and Kelly has continued. Trump retweeted a message calling the Fox anchor a “bimbo” early Friday morning. In an interview with CNN on Friday night, he said of Kelly, “You could see there was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her–whatever.” The comments have caused an uproar from the other Republican candidates, but Trump has dismissed his enemies and turned his criticism on Fox News for pointed questions and unfair, bad reviews on his performance.

Having stuck to his braggadocio and having dominated the debate from start to finish, supporters of Trump will be reinvigorated. Specific policy proposals have never been a part of The Donald’s campaign, and he didn’t need them on Thursday either. His commanding performance will be enough to at least keep him in the lead, if not continue to break away in the polls.

Jeb Bush, second in the polls, went into the debate with the pressure of being the favorite to win the nomination despite currently trailing Trump. The ex-Florida governor has not campaigned for office since 2002, and his debate rustiness clearly showed. He seemed uninterested at times, and his answers were nervous, choppy, and far from inspiring. Jeb’s only bright moment of the night was his passionate defense of his support for Common Core education standards, citing improved learning results during his governorship and winning strong applause.

After a few weeks of stumbling, Bush really needed to perform well in this debate but fell well short. In the latest of a series of blunders, last week Bush catastrophically said he wasn’t “sure if we need half a billion dollars for women’s health issues.” Despite trying to walk back the comment, Bush took a major hit, and after this weak debate performance, questions are on the rise about Jeb’s current position as the prohibitive Republican nominee for president.

In fact, it was another one of Florida’s favorites that turned in a collected, sharp and impressive display on Thursday night; Senator Marco Rubio outshone his one-time mentor on the stage in Cleveland with his remarks. His smartest response came on the topic of immigration, where he subtly fired down Donald Trump’s usual nonsense answer and provided details on the sources of immigration and an e-verify system to track immigration into the United States. The youngest candidate on the stage (Rubio is 44) also talked up how the election could not be about the past and had to be about ideas for the future, winning thunderous approval from the crowd.

No doubt the senator’s finest moment came when he framed his candidacy against that of Hillary Clinton. “If I’m our nominee, how is Hillary Clinton going to lecture me on living paycheck to paycheck? I was raised paycheck to paycheck. How is she going to lecture me on student loans? I owed over a hundred thousand dollars just four years ago. If I’m our nominee, we will be the party of the future,” Rubio declared in one of the most applauded lines of the debate. After a summer of slipping down the polls, shining at the first debate could re-solidify Rubio as a top tier candidate for the nomination.

The other sitting senators at the debate fell very flat in comparison. Ted Cruz was forgettable and nearly silent the entire debate; he had no truly great moments and utterly failed to live up to his reputation as a fierce debater. Rand Paul was also not memorable at all, other than one fight he got into with Governor Chris Christie on domestic surveillance.

Paul, a fierce opponent of the PATRIOT Act whose filibuster led to the Senate not renewing parts of the surveillance bill, accused Christie of giving the president a big hug and spying on innocent civilians and told the New Jersey governor to “get a warrant” if surveillance was necessary, as per the Constitution. Christie fired back at the libertarian-leaning candidate by accusing him of “blowing hot air” and invoking fierce emotions about the 9/11 tragedy to make his point. After the scuffle, both candidates were clearly bloodied, and neither were able to overcome the hits they took in that fight the rest of the night.

For Christie especially, that was bad news. The straight-talking governor’s campaign has been on the ropes for some time, and with that negative impression of shouting the lasting one from the debate, his chances seem slim to capture more support in the coming months before the Iowa caucus.

Another governor who barely scraped into the debate, however, made a very different impression. John Kasich, debating in his home state, made full use of his folksy speaking ability and home-field advantage to win huge cheers every time he answered a question. Despite entering the presidential race just three weeks before the debate, the moderate Republican scraped his way up to 4% in the national polls to qualify and did himself a great service in potentially winning more support.

Kasich’s brightest responses were those that broke with the conservative wing of the party and all of the other candidates; the Ohio governor passionately defended his expansion of Medicare as a way to look after the mentally ill and to help those rotting in prisons, framing it as both an ethical and pragmatic measure. He also was one of the few candidates that put forth any compassion at all, saying that though he disagrees with the Supreme Court decision on gay marriage, he accepts it and would still love his daughter if she was lesbian. “We need to give everybody a chance, treat everybody with respect and let them share in this great American dream that we have,” he replied to the moderators, winning a surprising amount of applause from a staunchly conservative crowd.

Widely considered the most moderate candidate in the Republican field and hailing from a crucial swing state, many believe that Kasich would have the best chance of winning the general election for the GOP. Despite his short time in the race, Kasich did himself plenty of favors with this debate performance and could continue to rise in prominence and in the polls.

Mike Huckabee also put in a very strong performance, but in the opposite way of his Ohioan counterpart. The ex-Arkansas governor was confident and assured throughout the debate, showing his experience and using his knowledge from his previous run in 2008, when he surprised many and won the Iowa caucus. The ex-pastor is fiercely adored by hard-line evangelicals and is the most supported faith-driven candidate in the field.

However, as John Kasich put forth his ideas of acceptance, Huckabee fired back with quite the opposite. Asked about his opinion on allowing transgenders to openly serve in the military, Huckabee disdainfully fired back, “The military is not a social experiment. The purpose of the military is to kill people and break things,” garnering reasonable support from the more right wing conservatives in the audience. While such divisive rhetoric will hardly play well in the general election, it will certainly invigorate the evangelical base that Huckabee needs to mobilize if he wants to stay in the race.

Another candidate on the stage took up a staunchly right wing viewpoint as well, despite claiming that one of his best attributes was the ability to appeal to both conservative ideologues and general election voters. Scott Walker touted his opposition to all types of abortions, no matter how early and no matter what the mother’s condition. Other than that, Walker was flat and forgettable on the majority of his answers, which came as a big blow to the Republican establishment.

Walker is considered one of the GOP’s top tier candidates for president, along with Jeb Bush, but really failed to make a significant impact on the debate stage. His performance pointed to a lack of stage presence and an inability to articulate well on the spot, both worrying attributes for somebody considered to be a frontrunner to win the nomination. Should the Wisconsin governor fail to improve in coming debates, he could see his high polling numbers drop into the sea of mediocrity that has taken hold of the Republican primary.

Despite the intriguing ups and downs of the nine candidates, Ben Carson certainly had the most awkward night of all. The retired neurosurgeon looked horribly out of his depth on the issues and was unable to put forth any serious policy proposals. His tithe-like tax plan was based on the idea that “God’s a pretty fair guy”, and his soft-spoken style often gave away his fairly obvious confusion and nervousness. Even his most die-hard supporters surely were questioning if politics was the right place for Carson.

Carson did have two good moments, however. He put forth a touching answer on race relations and bringing people together, and he delivered a memorable quip on his surgerical past in his closing statement. “I’m the only one to separate Siamese twins […] The only one to remove half a brain, although you would think if you went to Washington that someone had beat me to it,” he joked, much to the amusement of the crowd and the candidates. Despite these good moments, Carson will likely keep falling in the polls as the first primaries get closer, as this debate proved he really isn’t cut out to be president.

The first debate was chock full of fighting, deeply conservative rhetoric, and classic Donald Trump controversy, and the American people loved it. All in all, 16% of American households with a TV set tuned in to the prime time debate, a new record for any presidential debate in history. Though the debate was certainly entertaining and many candidates came out either shining or bloodied, plenty of work remains ahead before the Republican nomination will be anything close to a done deal.